Values use the most recent closing prices fetched by the daily job, not live quotes. Share counts are recorded against unadjusted prices, so if TQQQ ever splits the affected trades must be edited by hand or both P/L and the annual return will drift.
Starting weight
Safe sleeve
Annual reset month
A cash-like sleeve is a different bet, not a worse one.
Over 1986–2026 treasuries beat bills by 2.67% a year, but that premium has
been negative since 2015 — since then the two are within 0.3 points and
bills have the smaller drawdown (−40.0% vs −42.9%). Duration only helps
when shares fall for growth reasons: it gained 40.9% through the dot-com
crash and lost 13.1% through 2022.
How today's number was worked out
Your trades
Every trade against this strategy. Use “Edit” on a row to match what your broker actually filled — the dashboard is calculated from these.
No trades recorded yet.
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How this works
- What is checked
- How much the Nasdaq 100 has moved day to day over the last 60 sessions. The job runs every weekday after the close; the number here is always the latest one.
- When you act
- Only on the first trading day of the month, and only if the target percentage has moved since you last traded. In the 40-year test the number was unchanged in three months out of four — no trade is the normal answer, and drift is deliberately left alone until the annual reset.
- The annual reset
- In your chosen month both sleeves go back to target whether or not the number moved. Without it the TQQQ position drifts upward in long calm stretches — to 74% of the account in the test.
Premium multiple
Highest Sharpe in the study (1.35)
Quotes are delayed and this is a candidate list, not an execution instruction. Re-check every strike in your broker before trading.
Record a fill
Saved. The next scan will use these.
Passcode
The only thing guarding this site. At least 12 characters.
What these do
- Premium multiple (k)
- Target premium is
k × FCF yield ÷ 12. k=1 was the highest-Sharpe rule Goldman tested; higher k sells closer to the money for more premium and more assignment. - Capital & collateral
- Capital is what you actually post. Collateral % sets leverage:
50% is roughly 2×, and is the recommended starting point.
Notional sold is
capital ÷ collateral%. - Max spread
- Rejects strikes whose bid-ask exceeds this share of mid. At these strikes execution cost is the largest single drag on returns.